Small Business Cash Flow Holds Steady as Three in Four Owners Look Past the Bank
Small business owners are heading into the end of 2026 with confidence, and most of them still aren't starting at the bank.
That's the headline from OnDeck's latest Small Business Cash Flow Trend Report, the 12th edition of the quarterly report OnDeck produces with Ocrolus, a cash flow analytics platform for lenders. The report, released Nov. 3, pairs a survey of 860 OnDeck small business customers, taken September 16 to 28, with Ocrolus cash flow data from more than 3.95 million working capital applications over the past 15 months.
Putting what owners say next to what their bank data shows is what makes this report worth reading. Here's what stood out to us.
Three in four skipped the bank
Seventy-five percent of owners surveyed bypassed traditional banks for capital, in line with Q2. Keep in mind these are OnDeck customers so it demonstrates that once a company experiences alternative to bank lenders they are highly likley to pursue that path again before going to a bank. With that said, paperwork was the top reason, cited by 47% of owners who didn't apply to a bank.
The cash flow data points the same way. Ocrolus found that median monthly fintech loan inflows rose 11% year over year while bank loan inflows were flat, widening the gap between the two to about $1,500 from about $600 a year ago.
Cash flow worries eased, inflation didn't
Inflation is again owners' top concern at 36%. The Fed has yet to gain control or reach their 2% target rate. Cash flow came in second at 28%, easing for a second straight quarter, with revenue at 17%.
The underlying numbers back that up. Median monthly revenue of applicants rebounded 6% from Q2, and the median revenue-to-expense ratio held above 100%.
"The cash flow data shows small businesses operating from a position of strength. Revenue rebounded and kept pace with expenses, and owners continue to look beyond traditional banks as they fund growth." David Snitkof, General Manager of Small Business, Ocrolus
93% still expect growth
Ninety-three percent of owners expect moderate to significant growth over the next year, and 68% say they're on track to meet or beat their 2026 profit plan. Jim Granat, Co-President of Small Business Lending at OnDeck parent Enova, said owners are "carrying real momentum into the end of the year."
AI is part of that picture. Sixty-one percent of small businesses report using AI, and 90% of those users report a measurable positive impact.
Read the full report
This is only a slice of what OnDeck and Ocrolus put together. The full report goes industry by industry, from where inflation bites hardest to where fintech inflows grew fastest, and much more. Read the full Small Business Cash Flow Trend Report on OnDeck's site.