SBA Loan Performance in 2025: What the Data Tells Brokers and Lenders About Risk
- F.I. Editorial Team
- 3 hours ago
- 2 min read
In this lending environment, general data is useless. Knowing the "average" default rate won't save your portfolio when specific sectors are imploding while others are thriving.
A new analysis of 2025 SBA 7(a) loan performance data has just been released, and for brokers and lenders, it is practically a treasure map. The data, analyzed by Monitor Daily, reveals a stark divergence in performance based almost entirely on NAICS codes.
The takeaway for 2026 is clear: Stop chasing yield in high-burn sectors and start doubling down on the safe havens.
Here is the intel you need from the report.
The "Bulletproof" Sectors (Target These)
If you are looking for reliable paper and smooth underwriting, two sectors are outperforming everything else by a wide margin.
1. Healthcare & Social Assistance This is currently the gold standard of SBA lending.
The Data: Default rates for physicians, dentists, and specialized outpatient care centers are hovering below 1%.
The Why: High barriers to entry, recession-resistant demand, and strong cash flows make these borrowers incredibly resilient. Even with inflation, people need doctors.
2. Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Think accountants, architects, engineers, and law firms.
The Data: These sectors are showing default rates in the very low 1.5% to 2% range.
The Why: These businesses often have low overhead (no heavy inventory or massive equipment costs) and high billing rates. They are nimble and capitalized well enough to weather economic bumps.
The "Danger Zones" (Proceed with Extreme Caution)
Conversely, the report highlights sectors where inflation, labor costs, and margin compression are causing massive bleed-out. If you are writing paper here, your underwriting needs to be flawless.
1. Transportation and Warehousing (Specifically Trucking) The data here is ugly.
The Data: Default rates in some trucking sub-sectors are pushing past 7-8%.
The Why: This is a perfect storm of high diesel prices, expensive maintenance/parts, and fluctuating spot rates. Many operators who got in during the post-COVID boom are now underwater.
2. Accommodation and Food Services (Restaurants) No surprise here, but the numbers are validating the stereotype.
The Data: Restaurants continue to struggle with high default rates, consistently ranking among the worst performers in the SBA portfolio.
The Why: A brutal combination of rising food costs, skyrocketing labor expenses, and consumers pulling back on discretionary spending. Margins are too thin to absorb any mistakes.
SBA Loan Size Matters
Another critical finding for brokers: The size of the loan is a major predictor of performance.
Small loans (<$350k) are seeing significantly higher default rates. These borrowers are often less capitalized and have fewer resources to navigate a downturn.
Large loans ($2M+) are performing much better, indicating that larger, more established businesses are managing the current economic environment far more effectively.
The Takeaway
The data is shouting at us. In 2026, successful brokering isn't about volume; it's about selection. A $2M deal for a dental practice is infinitely more valuable, and likely faster to close, than chasing five separate $400k trucking deals that will get stuck in underwriting or default in six months.
Adjust your marketing spend and your outreach accordingly.
