"Wall Street has been waiting for a recession that hasn’t materialized roughly five months into the year.
Executives at S&P 500 companies are talking about recessions less on earnings calls for the third straight quarter, per FactSet. S&P Global’s flash US composite PMI showed US economic output reached a 13-month high in May. Even the consumer slowdown teased by some companies doesn’t appear widespread quite yet.
“The economy is still on sound ground, with consumers willing to spend and businesses continuing to hire and invest despite fears that a recession is around the corner,” Oxford Economics Lead US Economist Oren Klachkin wrote in a note titled "Recession remains out of sight" on Friday. "We maintain our call for a mild recession to begin in Q3 but see a risk that it might start later. Consumers – the main engine of the US economy – will keep spending so long as incomes continue to rise."